Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico.
Identifieur interne : 000511 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000510; suivant : 000512Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico.
Auteurs : Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Martin Lajous ; Justin J. O'Hagan ; Ted Cohen ; Joel C. Miller ; Edward Goldstein ; Leon Danon ; Jacco Wallinga ; Steven Riley ; Scott F. Dowell ; Carrie Reed ; Meg MccarronSource :
- PloS one [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2009.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Canada (MeSH), Durée du séjour (MeSH), Espagne (MeSH), Grippe humaine (virologie), Grippe humaine (épidémiologie), Humains (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Mexique (MeSH), Royaume-Uni (MeSH), Santé mondiale (MeSH), Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (génétique), Surveillance de la population (MeSH), Voyage (MeSH), Épidémies de maladies (MeSH), États-Unis (MeSH).
- MESH :
- génétique : Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A.
- virologie : Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Canada, Durée du séjour, Espagne, Humains, Incidence, Mexique, Royaume-Uni, Santé mondiale, Surveillance de la population, Voyage, Épidémies de maladies, États-Unis.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Canada (MeSH), Disease Outbreaks (MeSH), Global Health (MeSH), Humans (MeSH), Incidence (MeSH), Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (genetics), Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (virology), Length of Stay (MeSH), Mexico (MeSH), Population Surveillance (MeSH), Spain (MeSH), Travel (MeSH), United Kingdom (MeSH), United States (MeSH).
- MESH :
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- genetics : Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype.
- virology : Influenza, Human.
- Canada, Disease Outbreaks, Global Health, Humans, Incidence, Length of Stay, Mexico, Population Surveillance, Spain, Travel, United Kingdom, United States.
Abstract
BACKGROUND
An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When a novel pathogen first appears, affected individuals with severe symptoms are more likely to be diagnosed. Accordingly, the total number of cases will be underestimated and disease severity overestimated. This problem is manifest in the current epidemic of novel influenza A/H1N1.
METHODS AND RESULTS
We used a simple approach to leverage measures of incident influenza A/H1N1 among a relatively small and well observed group of US, UK, Spanish and Canadian travelers who had visited Mexico to estimate the incidence among a much larger and less well surveyed population of Mexican residents. We estimate that a minimum of 113,000 to 375,000 cases of novel influenza A/H1N1 have occurred in Mexicans during the month of April, 2009. Such an estimate serves as a lower bound because it does not account for underreporting of cases in travelers or for nonrandom mixing between Mexican residents and visitors, which together could increase the estimates by more than an order of magnitude.
CONCLUSIONS
We find that the number of cases in Mexican residents may exceed the number of confirmed cases by two to three orders of magnitude. While the extent of disease spread is greater than previously appreciated, our estimate suggests that severe disease is uncommon since the total number of cases is likely to be much larger than those of confirmed cases.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0006895
PubMed: 19742302
PubMed Central: PMC2731883
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
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O'Hagan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cohen, Ted" sort="Cohen, Ted" uniqKey="Cohen T" first="Ted" last="Cohen">Ted Cohen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Joel C" sort="Miller, Joel C" uniqKey="Miller J" first="Joel C" last="Miller">Joel C. Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, Edward" sort="Goldstein, Edward" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="Edward" last="Goldstein">Edward Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Danon, Leon" sort="Danon, Leon" uniqKey="Danon L" first="Leon" last="Danon">Leon Danon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dowell, Scott F" sort="Dowell, Scott F" uniqKey="Dowell S" first="Scott F" last="Dowell">Scott F. Dowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccarron, Meg" sort="Mccarron, Meg" uniqKey="Mccarron M" first="Meg" last="Mccarron">Meg Mccarron</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:19742302</idno><idno type="pmid">19742302</idno><idno type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0006895</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC2731883</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">00510</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">00510</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000510</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000510</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000510</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico.</title><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lajous, Martin" sort="Lajous, Martin" uniqKey="Lajous M" first="Martin" last="Lajous">Martin Lajous</name></author><author><name sortKey="O Hagan, Justin J" sort="O Hagan, Justin J" uniqKey="O Hagan J" first="Justin J" last="O'Hagan">Justin J. O'Hagan</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cohen, Ted" sort="Cohen, Ted" uniqKey="Cohen T" first="Ted" last="Cohen">Ted Cohen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Miller, Joel C" sort="Miller, Joel C" uniqKey="Miller J" first="Joel C" last="Miller">Joel C. Miller</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goldstein, Edward" sort="Goldstein, Edward" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="Edward" last="Goldstein">Edward Goldstein</name></author><author><name sortKey="Danon, Leon" sort="Danon, Leon" uniqKey="Danon L" first="Leon" last="Danon">Leon Danon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dowell, Scott F" sort="Dowell, Scott F" uniqKey="Dowell S" first="Scott F" last="Dowell">Scott F. Dowell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name></author><author><name sortKey="Mccarron, Meg" sort="Mccarron, Meg" uniqKey="Mccarron M" first="Meg" last="Mccarron">Meg Mccarron</name></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PloS one</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2009" type="published">2009</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Canada (MeSH)</term><term>Disease Outbreaks (MeSH)</term><term>Global Health (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype (genetics)</term><term>Influenza, Human (epidemiology)</term><term>Influenza, Human (virology)</term><term>Length of Stay (MeSH)</term><term>Mexico (MeSH)</term><term>Population Surveillance (MeSH)</term><term>Spain (MeSH)</term><term>Travel (MeSH)</term><term>United Kingdom (MeSH)</term><term>United States (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Canada (MeSH)</term><term>Durée du séjour (MeSH)</term><term>Espagne (MeSH)</term><term>Grippe humaine (virologie)</term><term>Grippe humaine (épidémiologie)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Incidence (MeSH)</term><term>Mexique (MeSH)</term><term>Royaume-Uni (MeSH)</term><term>Santé mondiale (MeSH)</term><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A (génétique)</term><term>Surveillance de la population (MeSH)</term><term>Voyage (MeSH)</term><term>Épidémies de maladies (MeSH)</term><term>États-Unis (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="epidemiology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="genetics" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="génétique" xml:lang="fr"><term>Sous-type H1N1 du virus de la grippe A</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="virology" xml:lang="en"><term>Influenza, Human</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="épidémiologie" xml:lang="fr"><term>Grippe humaine</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Canada</term><term>Disease Outbreaks</term><term>Global Health</term><term>Humans</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Length of Stay</term><term>Mexico</term><term>Population Surveillance</term><term>Spain</term><term>Travel</term><term>United Kingdom</term><term>United States</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Canada</term><term>Durée du séjour</term><term>Espagne</term><term>Humains</term><term>Incidence</term><term>Mexique</term><term>Royaume-Uni</term><term>Santé mondiale</term><term>Surveillance de la population</term><term>Voyage</term><term>Épidémies de maladies</term><term>États-Unis</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>BACKGROUND</b></p><p>An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When a novel pathogen first appears, affected individuals with severe symptoms are more likely to be diagnosed. Accordingly, the total number of cases will be underestimated and disease severity overestimated. This problem is manifest in the current epidemic of novel influenza A/H1N1.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHODS AND RESULTS</b></p><p>We used a simple approach to leverage measures of incident influenza A/H1N1 among a relatively small and well observed group of US, UK, Spanish and Canadian travelers who had visited Mexico to estimate the incidence among a much larger and less well surveyed population of Mexican residents. We estimate that a minimum of 113,000 to 375,000 cases of novel influenza A/H1N1 have occurred in Mexicans during the month of April, 2009. Such an estimate serves as a lower bound because it does not account for underreporting of cases in travelers or for nonrandom mixing between Mexican residents and visitors, which together could increase the estimates by more than an order of magnitude.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>We find that the number of cases in Mexican residents may exceed the number of confirmed cases by two to three orders of magnitude. While the extent of disease spread is greater than previously appreciated, our estimate suggests that severe disease is uncommon since the total number of cases is likely to be much larger than those of confirmed cases.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">19742302</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2010</Year><Month>02</Month><Day>01</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2018</Year><Month>11</Month><Day>13</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1932-6203</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>4</Volume><Issue>9</Issue><PubDate><Year>2009</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>09</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>PloS one</Title><ISOAbbreviation>PLoS ONE</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Use of cumulative incidence of novel influenza A/H1N1 in foreign travelers to estimate lower bounds on cumulative incidence in Mexico.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>e6895</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1371/journal.pone.0006895</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND" NlmCategory="BACKGROUND">An accurate estimate of the total number of cases and severity of illness of an emerging infectious disease is required both to define the burden of the epidemic and to determine the severity of disease. When a novel pathogen first appears, affected individuals with severe symptoms are more likely to be diagnosed. Accordingly, the total number of cases will be underestimated and disease severity overestimated. This problem is manifest in the current epidemic of novel influenza A/H1N1.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHODS AND RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">We used a simple approach to leverage measures of incident influenza A/H1N1 among a relatively small and well observed group of US, UK, Spanish and Canadian travelers who had visited Mexico to estimate the incidence among a much larger and less well surveyed population of Mexican residents. We estimate that a minimum of 113,000 to 375,000 cases of novel influenza A/H1N1 have occurred in Mexicans during the month of April, 2009. Such an estimate serves as a lower bound because it does not account for underreporting of cases in travelers or for nonrandom mixing between Mexican residents and visitors, which together could increase the estimates by more than an order of magnitude.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">We find that the number of cases in Mexican residents may exceed the number of confirmed cases by two to three orders of magnitude. While the extent of disease spread is greater than previously appreciated, our estimate suggests that severe disease is uncommon since the total number of cases is likely to be much larger than those of confirmed cases.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lipsitch</LastName><ForeName>Marc</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Lajous</LastName><ForeName>Martin</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>O'Hagan</LastName><ForeName>Justin J</ForeName><Initials>JJ</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cohen</LastName><ForeName>Ted</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Miller</LastName><ForeName>Joel C</ForeName><Initials>JC</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Goldstein</LastName><ForeName>Edward</ForeName><Initials>E</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Danon</LastName><ForeName>Leon</ForeName><Initials>L</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Wallinga</LastName><ForeName>Jacco</ForeName><Initials>J</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Riley</LastName><ForeName>Steven</ForeName><Initials>S</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Dowell</LastName><ForeName>Scott F</ForeName><Initials>SF</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Reed</LastName><ForeName>Carrie</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>McCarron</LastName><ForeName>Meg</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><GrantID>R01 TW008246</GrantID><Acronym>TW</Acronym><Agency>FIC NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>U01 GM076497</GrantID><Acronym>GM</Acronym><Agency>NIGMS NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>5U01GM076497</GrantID><Acronym>GM</Acronym><Agency>NIGMS NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant><Grant><GrantID>R01 TW008246-01</GrantID><Acronym>TW</Acronym><Agency>FIC NIH HHS</Agency><Country>United States</Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D052061">Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013486">Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2009</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>United States</Country><MedlineTA>PLoS One</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101285081</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1932-6203</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D002170" MajorTopicYN="N">Canada</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D004196" MajorTopicYN="N">Disease Outbreaks</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014943" MajorTopicYN="N">Global Health</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D015994" MajorTopicYN="N">Incidence</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D053118" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000235" MajorTopicYN="Y">genetics</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007251" MajorTopicYN="N">Influenza, Human</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000453" MajorTopicYN="Y">epidemiology</QualifierName><QualifierName UI="Q000821" MajorTopicYN="Y">virology</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D007902" MajorTopicYN="N">Length of Stay</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008800" MajorTopicYN="N">Mexico</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011159" MajorTopicYN="N">Population Surveillance</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D013030" MajorTopicYN="N">Spain</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014195" MajorTopicYN="N">Travel</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006113" MajorTopicYN="N">United Kingdom</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D014481" MajorTopicYN="N">United States</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2009</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>21</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2009</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>27</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2009</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2009</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>11</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2010</Year><Month>2</Month><Day>2</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>epublish</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">19742302</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0006895</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC2731883</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>JAMA. 2003 Jan 8;289(2):179-86</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId 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S" first="Scott F" last="Dowell">Scott F. Dowell</name><name sortKey="Goldstein, Edward" sort="Goldstein, Edward" uniqKey="Goldstein E" first="Edward" last="Goldstein">Edward Goldstein</name><name sortKey="Lajous, Martin" sort="Lajous, Martin" uniqKey="Lajous M" first="Martin" last="Lajous">Martin Lajous</name><name sortKey="Mccarron, Meg" sort="Mccarron, Meg" uniqKey="Mccarron M" first="Meg" last="Mccarron">Meg Mccarron</name><name sortKey="Miller, Joel C" sort="Miller, Joel C" uniqKey="Miller J" first="Joel C" last="Miller">Joel C. Miller</name><name sortKey="O Hagan, Justin J" sort="O Hagan, Justin J" uniqKey="O Hagan J" first="Justin J" last="O'Hagan">Justin J. O'Hagan</name><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name><name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name><name sortKey="Wallinga, Jacco" sort="Wallinga, Jacco" uniqKey="Wallinga J" first="Jacco" last="Wallinga">Jacco Wallinga</name></noCountry><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Massachusetts"><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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